It
was a rough week for one of my New Year’s resolutions. I resolved to correctly predict 75% of my NFL
playoff picks, and although I may still reach that goal by the time the Super
Bowl MVP praises Jesus, my start in the playoffs was a rougher one than starting
my ’67
VW Beetle on a cold, frosty morning.
But
all is not lost. I’m still doing fine on
my other New Year’s resolution, which is to only eat chicken injected with antibiotics. All those chickens and eggs hatched without the
benefit of antibiotics is a scary thing. Free range chickens in Petaluma are wandering all
over Sonoma County, having God only knows how much unprotected pecks in the
back alleys of Windsor and Glen Ellen. No sir.
Not for me. I want my free-range chickens
fully loaded with antibiotics.
I
may still salvage my New Year’s resolution:
If I can go 4 for 4 this weekend I’ll be at 60% for the playoffs, so
here goes.
This
round of the NFL playoffs is my favorite week of the season. Eight quality teams remain in the hunt for
the right to move onto the Conference Championship game, which ensures there
will be a full weekend of football to watch and enjoy. And I like all of the teams (with the
exception of Baltimore, due to personal feelings I have about a certain
linebacker getting
away with murder), so while I have a strong affection for the hometown
49ers, I am pleased to see this group of teams remaining in the playoffs.
Baltimore
Ravens at Denver Broncos
I’ve
watched maybe 6 NFL games this season and none included the Denver
Broncos. But having watched Payton
Manning for many years, I can just about predict what will happen. There will be lots of sets and movement, and
Manning will be barking orders at the line of scrimmage like a Third Reich
commander at a Paris bistro during occupation.
“Nein, Nein, ich wunsche den vintage Champagne!” And the tight end will shift from one side of
the line to the other side. And then
Commander Payton will shout “Ya vol, mien fraulein, mehr caviar auf meinem schnitzel.”
And his running back will go in motion
and take a swing pass down the right side for a 35-yard gain. I doubt the Ravens defensive players are
bilingual so they will be a little more confused by Manning than usual.
Nevertheless,
the Ravens bring an experienced, mature defense to Denver, but the thin air of
Colorado will leave them as breathless as the Marlboro Man. Manning has seen the Ravens a time or two (his
lifetime record vs., Ravens: 9-2), and the Broncos have one of the better coaches
in the league in John Fox. A road game
in the playoffs is tough to win (as I should have given more consideration last
weekend) and the Denver Broncos have a tradition of winning playoff games at
home – they’re home playoff record is 13 wins and only 3 losses since 1977.
The
Ravens have the ability to make big plays on offense, with Ray Rice and Anquan
Boldin providing a strong running and receiving punch. But you know my thoughts on Joe Flacco. The bigger the game the more his negatives
show up. Last week he was only 12 for
23, but he did complete a few great passes to Boldin (or maybe Boldin made
great catches) and he didn’t throw an interception. So it was a mixed performance from Flacco,
which supports my premise that his play in big games is just good enough to
lose. But thanks to his team’s defense
and some fine efforts by Rice and Boldin, the Ravens stymied the Colts and
moved on in the playoffs.
This
week the Broncos 5th ranked defense will be a tougher test for
Flacco and the Raven’s offense. I expect
Denver to bring all the weapons at their disposal to stomp out the Raven’s big
playmakers, resulting in a one-sided victory by the Broncos. Look for Payton Manning to tell the CBS field
reporter after the game: “Ya vol, Denver’s score will go high! (you have to admit, there is a slight
resemblance between Herr Pitt and Herr Payton)
Baltimore
Ravens 17
Denver
Broncos 31
Green
Bay at San Francisco
Oh
boy, there is a lot going on here. But
let’s cut to the real issue. Will Jim Harbaugh’s
bold choice to replace Alex Smith with Colin Kaepernick mid season payoff for
the 49ers? Or, will the decision back
fire and hang over Harbaugh’s head in the off-season like a cartoon speech
cloud? That’s the real story for this
game.
The
49ers have a superior defense to the Packer’s offense. The 49ers have a superior offense to the
Packer’s defense. The 49ers have a
better special teams unit, on the whole, than the Packers (Kicker David Aching
notwithstanding).
On
the other hand, the Green Bay Packers have arguably the best quarterback in
football, and he usually plays big in big games. But
not always. The 49ers defense, with
two weeks to prepare for this game, will bring a lot of new looks and schemes
for Green Bay to react to. While Aaron
Rodgers is All-Pro and Allstate, he better double check where Patrick Willis and
Navarro Bowman are lining up or he will be discounted by the 49ers.
So
the advantage on paper goes to the 49ers, but the questions remain about
Kaepernick.
Will
he rise to the occasion and play like a veteran? Or, will be make the same mistakes Andrew
Luck made against the Ravens, with enough bad passes, interceptions and fumbles
to cost his team valuable field position and not reach the end zone?
No
one knows for sure what Kaepernick will do.
But there is one thing we know happens in the playoffs – whatever your
strengths or weaknesses are, they will be magnified during the course of an NFL
playoff game.
Now
some of you are physically attracted to Kaepernick’s type of play – it results
in your testosterone or hormone levels rising, as the case may be; he makes you
flush and causes unauthorized movements of appendages. But I don’t like it when the quarterback is
running around like a halfback, especially when there is an All-Pro halfback to
hand the ball to. It’s unbecoming. It’s un-Montana like. If the 49ers abandon a balanced offensive
attack, on purpose or because the game dictates it, the Green Bay Packers might
just find a way to win this game.
So
here is my take on the Kaepernick question:
Whether Kaepernick plays like a veteran or not depends on one thing - how
effective Frank Gore is rushing the football.
If the 49ers give Gore the ball at least 18 times and he gains at least
112 yards, the 49ers will win the game. But
if they abandon Gore and turn to Kaepernick to carry the team, it just might be
a long day for the 49ers.
I’m
still going with the home team, but Frank Gore and the offensive line will be
the determining positive factor in this game.
Watch Gore’s stats in the first and second quarter and you’ll know the probable
outcome of the game at halftime. To
basterdize a bumper sticker from the religious right:
No
Gore, No Victory.
Know
Gore, Know Victory.
Green
Bay Packers 22
San
Francisco 49ers 24
Seattle
Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta’s
playoff record the last few years has been abysmal, and just like last year,
they enter the 2013 playoffs feeling confident after an outstanding regular
season. But the Seahawks are playing with
confidence and swagger too. So, will
Atlanta’s Matt Ryan’s 0-3 playoff record be 1-3 or 0-4 after this game? Or, will Russell Wilson and the Seahawks
continue their winning streak?
Before
we answer those questions, let’s first thank God, Jehovah, The Prophet, Yahweh,
He went That-a-Way and the Lord that the Atlanta Falcons are not called the
Atlanta Indians, Tomahawks, Cherokee, Inuit or any other Native American
tribe. If I had to listen to the
tomahawk chant for four quarters a la the Atlanta Braves and Florida State
Seminoles, I would give myself a scalping.
For me it would be a hairless scalping, but I assure you it would be
just as painful. Thankfully we can watch
the Falcons in relative peace and quiet, with the possible exception of having
to listen to and watch the 300 pound guy sitting in the last row with no teeth waving
the Confederate flag and mispronouncing the word “Falcons.” Try this:
remove your teeth, lower your IQ 80 points, drink a pint of moonshine and
yell “Falcons” at the top of your lungs,
and then tell me what word came out of your mouth. I have a feeling your family and guests won’t
be amused, so be careful.
Despite
my allegiance to the 49ers, I really like the Seattle Seahawks. They are a tough, physical team and they have
one of the best coaching staffs in the game.
And, you have to like the story of a rookie quarterback taking his team
deep into the playoffs. But the Seahawks
face a tough road battle this week. The
Atlanta Falcons have the best record in the NFC, and their home stadium is a
pretty noisy and raucous place. They
won’t make Russell Wilson feel at home, that’s for sure, but he is a pretty cool
character and the Falcon’s and their fans won’t intimidate him or his
teammates.
I
like the Seattle Seahawks to win this game.
The psychology of Matt Ryan’s 0-3 playoff record will be more of a distraction
than a motivator for the Falcon’s quarterback.
If Seattle’s defense is aggressive and disruptive early, Ryan’s mindset
will turn dark, and by halftime he’ll be focusing less on the Seahawks and more
on the Monday headline of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. What will the headline be: “Ryan Still Trying’” or “Matt is Flat”?
Take
your pick.
Seattle
Seahawks: 28
Atlanta
Falcons: 24
Houston
Texans at New England Patriots
There
is usually one easy pick each weekend of the NFL playoffs, and this is it. The Houston Texans took a severe beating in
New England on December 10, and I assure you, they haven’t forgotten about
it. But the Texans don’t have the
firepower to take revenge, and the Patriots are too good of a team to allow it
to happen anyway, especially at home, outdoors in cold weather.
The
Texans are not a great team yet. They
are a lot like the Vikings or the Bengals.
Good enough to make the playoffs, but not great enough to beat an elite
team like the Patriots.
Houston
Texans: 17
New
England Patriots: 38
So
look for Seattle at San Francisco and New England at Denver for the Conference
championship games. I’ll be serving
chicken if anyone is interested.
Until
next weekend,
Spencer
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